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May 21, 2008
Calling her bluff
PLEDGED: Obama 1645 to 1502
SUPERDELEGATES: Obama 305.5 to 281.5
EDWARDS PL. DELEGATES: Obama 10 to 0
TOTAL: Obama 1,960.5 to 1,783.5Obama has now won a majority of the pledged delegates even including Michigan and Florida (if you count the nine of Edwards Florida delegates, who have indicated they will vote for Obama. Without those Edwards delegates, Obama would need six more delegates to achieve a majority.)
The splits factored in mirror the "beauty contest" primaries in Michigan and Florida. They are how the Clinton campaign hopes they are eventually seated. Those splits would be: MI: Clinton 73-55; FL: Clinton 105-76 (w/ Edwards delegates, 67 without).
It is also important to note that neither of the two challenges to the DNC's rules to be heard at the May 31st Rules and Bylaws Committee call for splits as favorable to Clinton as the ones we have factored in. That doesn't mean the RBC might not seat the delegates in that way anyway, particularly if the Obama campaign agrees to it.
Posted by Mike at 05:53 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
I'm sure Clinton will do this
Sometime after hell freezes over:
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, we have been looking at some of the exit polls from Kentucky, in particular the issue of race. Voters who said that race was important in making their decision or is the factor in making their decision.DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: It is more disquieting news I think for Barack Obama as he looks for the general election.
COOPER: One in five I think.
GERGEN: It was about 21 percent that race was a factor. Nine out of ten of those voted for Hillary Clinton.
COOPER: And that is people that would admit it to a complete strangers taking these exit polls theoretically it would be even larger those who would not admit it.
GERGEN: And from her point of view, over a quarter of the people who voted for her today in Kentucky were people who said race was a factor in their decision. And it really means -- I mean, she's been talking about sexism in this race and she has complained about some in the last 24 hours.
You know race is really playing an increasing issue. And it also raises the question in my judgment of whether she shouldn't say, you know, if you want to vote against him because he's black, I don't want your vote. I don't want to win that way. This has no place in this primary.
COOPER: Do you see her saying that?
GERGEN: Well, she has been a champion -- she's been a champion of civil rights for a long, long time. She and her husband both have I think well-earned reputations in the civil rights front. She's never had redneck votes before in her life.
I see no reason why she couldn't take the high road here in the closing days of his campaign and try to take this on and take on the Reverend Wright issue to say, "Look, I campaigned with this fellow for 15 months. I know a lot of you people don't think he shares your values that somehow Barack thinks like Reverend Wright. Not true. I know him. I have been with him. And race should come out of this."
I think she could do a lot by taking a high road.
COOPER: Reverend Wright also showed up in these exit polls.
GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, in the state of Kentucky, 54 percent of the voters said Barack Obama shares the views of Reverend Wright. That's something we saw also in West Virginia.
And does Barack Obama share your values? 53 percent of the voters in Kentucky said, "No, he doesn't." This is some of the repair work that he's got to do in terms of the voters that Hillary Clinton is getting.
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: Hillary Clinton ought to keep in mind, I think, the long view here. She's got many more years in public life ahead of her. Taking the high road at this point, saying I don't want racists to vote for me, saying that this is about something bigger than just strategizing the last few races. I think that would stand her in very good stead.
BORGER: Very late for that. What in Montana and South Dakota?
TOOBIN: I mean, she might as well say it, because I think it would make a difference. This race has been so polarized along the issues of race and, frankly, I think most people blame her for that than they blame Obama. And to leave, if she's in fact leaving on the high road, would do a world of good.
GERGEN: She could do it on Reverend Wright. She could still take that on before she leaves this race.
The more I read this exchange and realize it will never happen, the more depressed I get about how much damage the Clintons have done.
Posted by Mike at 01:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
May 14, 2008
Police state? What police state?
Ohio man jailed because daughter didn't earn GED
An Ohio man was sentenced last week to 180 days in jail because his daughter failed to earn a high-school equivalency diploma."Butler County Juvenile Court Judge David Niehaus ordered [Brian] Gegner to jail for contributing to the delinquency of a minor by not following a court order which required Gegner to be sure his daughter got her GED," WCPO-TV says. "This comes after ongoing problems of Brittany skipping classes at Fairfield High School and then, Butler Tech."
The judge says he let Gegner out of jail early if Brittany, now 18, earns the credential in the next six months.
"It was my wrongdoing, not his," the daughter tells AP. "He shouldn't have to go to jail for something I did."
Posted by Mike at 01:14 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Note to self
Avoid Mingo County, West Virginia:
Mingo
Clinton 7,813 88%
Obama 712 8%
100% reporting
Forget NASCAR dads, the moonshine vote is the key:
Mingo County is the newest county in the state, formed by an act of the state legislature in 1895 from parts of Logan County. Its founding was related to a legal protest by a moonshiner, who claimed that the Logan County Court that had found him guilty did not have jurisdiction over his case, because his was still actually located in Lincoln County. A land survey was taken and discovered that the defendant was correct. The charges were then refiled in Lincoln County court. Although the moonshiner was ultimately found guilty of his crime, the state legislature was made aware of the situation and determined that Logan County was too large for the expeditious administration of justice and decided to create a new county, called Mingo. The county was named in honor of the Mingo Native American tribe, which had been the earliest known settlers of the region.
Speaking of good old Logan County:
Logan
Clinton 8,617 84%
Obama 1,085 11%
100% reporting
Okay, I understand NASCAR has roots in moonshine smuggling, my point is they sure seem to have distilled some anti-Obama sentiment down in Mingo County.
Posted by Mike at 01:03 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)