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May 21, 2008
Calling her bluff
PLEDGED: Obama 1645 to 1502
SUPERDELEGATES: Obama 305.5 to 281.5
EDWARDS PL. DELEGATES: Obama 10 to 0
TOTAL: Obama 1,960.5 to 1,783.5Obama has now won a majority of the pledged delegates even including Michigan and Florida (if you count the nine of Edwards Florida delegates, who have indicated they will vote for Obama. Without those Edwards delegates, Obama would need six more delegates to achieve a majority.)
The splits factored in mirror the "beauty contest" primaries in Michigan and Florida. They are how the Clinton campaign hopes they are eventually seated. Those splits would be: MI: Clinton 73-55; FL: Clinton 105-76 (w/ Edwards delegates, 67 without).
It is also important to note that neither of the two challenges to the DNC's rules to be heard at the May 31st Rules and Bylaws Committee call for splits as favorable to Clinton as the ones we have factored in. That doesn't mean the RBC might not seat the delegates in that way anyway, particularly if the Obama campaign agrees to it.
Posted by Mike at May 21, 2008 05:53 PM
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