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December 07, 2005
Iraqi Election Predictions
One interesting thing about the elections next week is that 230 of the 275 seats will be awarded to each province, instead of from a national pool. The remaining 45 will be awarded from the full pool. This guarantees the Sunnis dozens of seats in the new parliament, regardless of voter turnout. I was worried because instead of being based strictly on population, the number of seats per province is determined based on the number of registered voters. However, based on the chart below it looks like a pretty fair breakdown of seats.
Here are the numbers from the IEC web site combined with the census data posted by FAAIR.org for 2003:
Province - Registered out of Total for Guaranteed Seats
Baghdad - 3,664,922 of 6,386,067 for 59 seats
Nineveh - 1,197,940 of 2,473,727 for 19 seats
Sulaymania - 914,441 of 2,159,803 for 15 seats
Arbeel - 795,291 of 1,845,166 for 13 seats
Basra - 1,035,055 of 1,760,984 for 16 seats
Babylon - 694,192 of 1,444,372 for 11 seats
DheeQar - 778,574 of 1,427,220 for 12 seats
Deyala - 624,099 of 1,373,862 for 10 seats
Anbar - 574,138 of 1,280,011 for 9 seats
Salahadeen - 498,017 of 1,077,785 for 8 seats
Najaf - 493,808 of 946,251 for 8 seats
Karbala - 409,081 of 755,994 for 6 seats
Wasit - 494,955 of 941,827 for 8 seats
Qadisiya - 486,827 of 866,695 for 8 seats
Tameem - 576,048 of 839,121 for 9 seats
Maysan - 417,273 of 743,409 for 7 seats
Dahouk - 429,182 of 616,609 for 7 seats
Muthanna - 295,326 of 536,264 for 5 seats
Total - 14,379,169 of 27,475,167 for 230 seats
Based on the referendum results, and breakdown of Sunni to Shia and Arab to Kurd, I would say we can expect to see the following approximate breakdown of all 275 seats, by ethnic faction, assuming the overall seats go 5 Turkoman, 10 Sunni, 10 Kurd, 20 Shia:
5 Turkoman or Chaldean ethnic minorities
55 Sunni (Anbar, Salahadeen, 1/2 Deyala, 1/2 Nineveh, 1/4 Baghdad)
75 Kurd (1/2 Deyala, 1/2 Nineveh, Tameem, Sulaymania, Dahouk, Arbeel)
140 Shia (3/4 Baghdad plus all the remaining nine southern provinces)
Once again, the Shia will win a slim majority, but now they will have the option of forming a coalition with either the Sunnis or the Kurds.
Posted by Mike at December 7, 2005 01:02 AM
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