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December 08, 2005
AEI and Iran endorse Chalabi for PM
The San Antonio Express News has the details:
Here is a summary of the five major alliances, based on Arab press reporting of the Raphaeli analysis:The Iraqi National Alliance includes the two major Shiite political parties that won the greatest number of seats last January and the party of current Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari.
This alliance received the blessing of al-Sistani last time, and it also includes the movement of Shiite radical Muqtada al-Sadr. Ahmad Chalabi had been part of the alliance, but will not be this time.
The alliance has become increasingly loyal to Iran, which supports it, but it is viewed as less likely to do well this time.
Americans who hope to see a pluralist, democratic Iraq should not support its efforts.
The National Congress Party, which Chalabi created, is "10 entities of a liberal and secular orientation, representing Shia, Sunni and Turkmen," according to Raphaeli.
Although Iran supports the Iraqi National Alliance, it has endorsed Chalabi as prime minister.
The Iraqi Accord Front is the major Sunni alliance. The alliance head is pressuring Sunnis to vote rather than boycott, as they did last January, and to participate in the political process rather than support the insurgency.
The Kurdish Alliance includes, as the name suggests, the major Kurdish political parties, which likely will lose some proportion of their representation if Sunnis participate this time.
Americans should hope that the Iraqi National List does well in this election. Former interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi heads the list, which includes both Shiite and Sunni secular and nonsectarian political figures. It also includes many leaders of the women's movement in Iraq.
Allawi and Chalabi could pick up a seat or two from several of the southern or even northern provinces, and a handful in Baghdad. For the most part, the seats will be split among the three major ethnic alliances however, with votes cast mainly along ethnic lines. It is interesting to note that Al Sadr will receive one quarter of the seats allocated to the main Shia list, the Iraqi National Alliance. The real question is whether Chalabi and Allawi can buy, I mean win, enough votes to prevent the Shia list from winning a majority in the new Parliament. If so, they could form a voting block with the Sunnis and Kurds that theoretically shuts the Shia out.
I don't think it's likely but Allawi got 40 seats last time. Why not?
What caught me off guard was the part about Iran - not just the American Enterprise Institute - backing Ahmed Chalabi for Prime Minister. Well, I guess now we know, "What is the price of oil?"
Posted by Mike at December 8, 2005 06:49 PM
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