November 05, 2004
How Kerry lost by three million votes
Comparing the results from 2000, to this year's preliminary returns, a few things stick out, or a few states to be exact. New York and California seem to have been hurt by Democratic voter apathy, since the states were not considered important overall. The states most affected by the attack on the World Trade Center all helped Bush out. The NJ, NY, FL, CA shift could have something to do with Bush's pro-Israel policy, above and beyond the 9/11 factor. The red state shift seems to have it's roots in a combination of cultural conservative zeal for Bush, and a desire to support the president during a war. FL had the hurricanes, too. In summary:
Voter Apathy: NY,NJ,CA,CT
September Eleventh: NY,NJ,CT
Evangelical Zeal: FL,TX,TN,GA,AL,OK,IN,LA,KY,MO
Israel Policy: FL,NY,NJ,CA
Hurricane Season: FL
Just my two cents. Keep reading for the raw data and a map of these states.
| R '00 | D '00 | R '04 | D '04 | delta R | delta D | R minus D | |
| AL | 941,173 | 692,611 | 1,174,348 | 691,993 | 233,175 | -618 | 233,793 |
| AK | 167,398 | 79,004 | 151,876 | 86,064 | -15,522 | 7,060 | -22,582 |
| AZ | 781,652 | 685,341 | 908,211 | 735,327 | 126,559 | 49,986 | 76,573 |
| AR | 472,940 | 422,768 | 566,678 | 464,157 | 93,738 | 41,389 | 52,349 |
| CA | 4,567,429 | 5,861,203 | 4,403,495 | 5,427,055 | -163,934 | -434,148 | 270,214 |
| CO | 883,748 | 738,227 | 1,058,040 | 944,052 | 174,292 | 205,825 | -31,533 |
| CT | 561,094 | 816,015 | 686,923 | 847,666 | 125,829 | 31,651 | 94,178 |
| DE | 137,288 | 180,068 | 171,531 | 199,887 | 34,243 | 19,819 | 14,424 |
| DC | 18,073 | 171,923 | 19,007 | 183,876 | 934 | 11,953 | -11,019 |
| FL | 2,912,790 | 2,912,253 | 3,911,825 | 3,534,609 | 999,035 | 622,356 | 376,679 |
| GA | 1,419,720 | 1,116,230 | 1,889,832 | 1,345,198 | 470,112 | 228,968 | 241,144 |
| HI | 137,845 | 205,286 | 194,109 | 231,318 | 56,264 | 26,032 | 30,232 |
| ID | 336,937 | 138,637 | 408,254 | 180,920 | 71,317 | 42,283 | 29,034 |
| IL | 2,019,421 | 2,589,026 | 2,313,415 | 2,826,757 | 293,994 | 237,731 | 56,263 |
| IN | 1,245,836 | 901,980 | 1,474,475 | 960,899 | 228,639 | 58,919 | 169,720 |
| IA | 634,373 | 638,517 | 745,997 | 732,780 | 111,624 | 94,263 | 17,361 |
| KS | 622,332 | 399,276 | 717,507 | 420,846 | 95,175 | 21,570 | 73,605 |
| KY | 872,492 | 638,898 | 1,069,403 | 712,761 | 196,911 | 73,863 | 123,048 |
| LA | 927,871 | 792,344 | 1,101,296 | 818,207 | 173,425 | 25,863 | 147,562 |
| ME | 286,616 | 319,951 | 319,066 | 375,766 | 32,450 | 55,815 | -23,365 |
| MD | 813,797 | 1,145,782 | 951,892 | 1,223,813 | 138,095 | 78,031 | 60,064 |
| MA | 878,502 | 1,616,487 | 1,067,163 | 1,793,916 | 188,661 | 177,429 | 11,232 |
| MI | 1,953,139 | 2,170,418 | 2,306,324 | 2,471,998 | 353,185 | 301,580 | 51,605 |
| MN | 1,109,659 | 1,168,266 | 1,345,168 | 1,443,564 | 235,509 | 275,298 | -39,789 |
| MS | 572,844 | 404,614 | 671,027 | 445,596 | 98,183 | 40,982 | 57,201 |
| MO | 1,189,924 | 1,111,138 | 1,452,715 | 1,253,879 | 262,791 | 142,741 | 120,050 |
| MT | 240,178 | 137,126 | 265,473 | 173,363 | 25,295 | 36,237 | -10,942 |
| NE | 433,862 | 231,780 | 485,766 | 234,236 | 51,904 | 2,456 | 49,448 |
| NV | 301,575 | 279,978 | 414,939 | 393,372 | 113,364 | 113,394 | -30 |
| NH | 273,559 | 266,348 | 330,848 | 340,019 | 57,289 | 73,671 | -16,382 |
| NJ | 1,284,173 | 1,788,850 | 1,587,494 | 1,799,320 | 303,321 | 10,470 | 292,851 |
| NM | 286,417 | 286,783 | 372,124 | 363,591 | 85,707 | 76,808 | 8,899 |
| NY | 2,403,374 | 4,107,697 | 2,793,745 | 3,986,172 | 390,371 | -121,525 | 511,896 |
| NC | 1,631,163 | 1,257,692 | 1,910,936 | 1,484,158 | 279,773 | 226,466 | 53,307 |
| ND | 174,852 | 95,284 | 195,998 | 110,662 | 21,146 | 15,378 | 5,768 |
| OH | 2,351,209 | 2,186,190 | 2,796,147 | 2,659,664 | 444,938 | 473,474 | -28,536 |
| OK | 744,337 | 474,276 | 959,655 | 504,077 | 215,318 | 29,801 | 185,517 |
| OR | 713,577 | 720,342 | 823,210 | 890,698 | 109,633 | 170,356 | -60,723 |
| PA | 2,281,127 | 2,485,967 | 2,756,361 | 2,883,833 | 475,234 | 397,866 | 77,368 |
| RI | 130,555 | 249,508 | 161,654 | 247,407 | 31,099 | -2,101 | 33,200 |
| SC | 785,937 | 565,561 | 924,170 | 650,350 | 138,233 | 84,789 | 53,444 |
| SD | 190,700 | 118,804 | 232,545 | 149,225 | 41,845 | 30,421 | 11,424 |
| TN | 1,061,949 | 981,720 | 1,381,937 | 1,033,176 | 319,988 | 51,456 | 268,532 |
| TX | 3,799,639 | 2,433,746 | 4,519,023 | 2,827,756 | 719,384 | 394,010 | 325,374 |
| UT | 515,096 | 203,053 | 612,623 | 227,286 | 97,527 | 24,233 | 73,294 |
| VT | 119,775 | 149,022 | 120,710 | 183,621 | 935 | 34,599 | -33,664 |
| VA | 1,437,490 | 1,217,290 | 1,662,484 | 1,396,269 | 224,994 | 178,979 | 46,015 |
| WA | 1,108,864 | 1,247,652 | 1,012,658 | 1,179,429 | -96,206 | -68,223 | -27,983 |
| WV | 336,475 | 295,497 | 418,151 | 321,641 | 81,676 | 26,144 | 55,532 |
| WI | 1,237,279 | 1,242,987 | 1,477,122 | 1,488,935 | 239,843 | 245,948 | -6,105 |
| WY | 147,947 | 60,481 | 167,129 | 70,620 | 19,182 | 10,139 | 9,043 |
| US | 50,456,002 | 50,999,897 | 59,462,479 | 55,951,784 | 9,006,477 | 4,951,887 | 4,054,590 |